Sunday, June 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby To Be a Week Long Nuisance

From the Weather Desk of "Doppler" Dale Bader:

As of 7pm CDT, Sunday, June 24, 2012, Tropical Storm Debby was located 115 mi SSW of Apalachicola, FL and was nearly stationary. Her maximum sustained winds were 60 mph, which is a strong Tropical Storm. Minimum central pressure was 990 MB or 29.23".

Debby is not well structured with most of the convection to the north and well east of the central circulation with little to no convection or clouds on the south-southwest side of the central circulation. Northern most bands of rainfall and convection is already impacting the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia and Alabama. Additionally, most of the Florida peninsula is experiencing rainfall in association with Debby.

Rainfall is the main concern with this storm as the storm will move very slowly through the upcoming work week bringing rounds of rain after rain to much of the same locations. Unfortunately, for much of the Panhandle of Florida this is not what they want nor need. Just two weeks ago 1 to 2 feet of rain fell over southern Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida. Now, through Friday morning, these same areas could see 3" to 8" of more rain with even heavier amounts approaching a foot towards the Big Bend and northeastern Florida.
Rainfall Forecast thru Friday AM

The latest NHC (National Hurricane Center) forecast (7pm CDT 6/24) for Tropical Storm Debby has shifted eastward from earlier forecasts. The previous forecast had Debby strengthening to a hurricane and eventually making landfall in southeast Louisiana. Now, the forecast maintains Debby as a Tropical Storm until landfall, late Thursday/early Friday near Apalachicola, FL, in the Florida panhandle.

Latest NHC Forecast
Intensity wise, I concur with NHC that Debby will likely hold and maintain her current strength and the very latest (7pm CDT) models are continuing to indicate the same. Only the GFDL, indicates the potential for Debby to briefly reach near the low end strength of a hurricane. Track wise, I am in

feeling that a continued nudge eastward with the track will be required with the landfall likely
occurring in the Big Bend of Florida towards Thursday.

1 comment:

  1. I can't believe that it might go on for so long
    :-o I'm in Pasco County FL and already we're pretty stuck due to flooding.