Monday, June 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby Not Much of a Tropical Storm But A Real Rain Maker

From the Weather Desk of "Doppler" Dale Bader:

As of 7pm CDT, Tropical Storm Debby was still hanging in there but it has weakened over the past twelve hours, a trend that has continued now for 24-hours. Debby was located about 30 mi SSW of Apalachicola, Florida and was moving very slowly to nearly stationary. Maximum wind speeds are now down to 45 mph and the minimum central pressure had risen to 992 mb (29.29").

I have been watching Debby all day and she has continuously looked unorganized with widespread cloud cover, rain and convection well out and ahead of the main circulation, impacting the entire state of Florida. Earlier today, the main area of convection was over the Florida peninsula but now it has shifted up across northern Florida from Tallahassee to Jacksonville.

Overall, little change is expected in the rainfall zone. More rainfall is expected for the Florida peninsula and northern Florida. Additional rainfall of 5"-10" is possible across northern Florida with 3"-8" of additional rainfall possible for much of the peninsula through Friday. Add that to the abundant rainfall that has already made the sunshine state soggy and additional flooding is very possible.

Rainfall so far, has reached close to 10" across west-central Florida from Clearwater to near Brooksville and continuing to near Jacksonville. With a wide swath of 2"-5" cover much of the Floridian peninsula.

The heaviest rainfall, however, has been confined over the Big Bend from areas east of Panama City to near Tallahassee to Perry in northern Florida. Here estimated rainfall has been approaching 12" with some areas already likely topping that.

Additionally, there has been a threat for sporadic tornadoes across the Florida peninsula and that will likely continue through Tuesday. So be sure you stay safe and weather aware. Have a weather radio or other warning notification device in use. I use and highly recommend Weather Call. I would highly encourage you to check it out and subscribe.

Ok, now to what Debby will do and where she may go. Looking had how she has weaken and how she appears now in structure, I anticipate she will hold her strength, at best.More likely, she will continue to slowly weaken. If the newest modeling data is finally picking up on this trend and weaken her to Tropical Depression status by Wednesday evening.

Over the next couple of days, Debby will still not move very fast but she will slowly progress eastward. Landfall will likely occur late Wednesday night into early Thursday near Dixie County, Florida (Cross City). But by that time, Debby will either be very weak Tropical Storm or more likely just a Tropical Depression.

Debby, may get a second chance of life late next weekend into early next week once she leaves Florida and moves back over the Gulf Stream Waters. She will then likely track a bit northeastward and may re-intensify into a tropical system at that time.

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